Why did Bitcoin rebound today? Trump’s tariff black swan and non-farm outlook trigger a risk-off wave

Bitcoin rebounds above $91,000. Geopolitical risk aversion drives gold up $20 to $4,477, benefiting Bitcoin from the spillover safe-haven effect; the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on Friday whether Trump’s tariffs are legal. A ruling against them would severely damage his economic policies and trigger a multi-billion dollar tax refund dispute; the non-farm payroll report is scheduled for Friday, with an estimated 60,000 new jobs, and markets anticipate two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with a low-interest environment favoring Bitcoin.

Spillover Effect of Geopolitical Risk Aversion

(Source: Trading View)

Driven by safe-haven demand caused by geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin short-term rebound above $91,000. Geopolitical risks still support the market, as the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and President Trump’s threat to extend such actions to other Latin American countries cause investor anxiety, leading to increased demand for precious metals as safe havens.

Recently, two oil tankers related to Venezuela have been seized in the Atlantic Ocean, deepening concerns over energy and regional stability. Additionally, foreign media reports that U.S. officials have discussed providing one-time monetary compensation to Greenland residents to encourage their secession from Denmark and alliance with the U.S. On Thursday local time, Trump stated that the U.S. must “own” all of Greenland, not just exercise military and defense rights based on existing treaties.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said Thursday that U.S. threats against Greenland are “extremely concerning,” calling on the U.S. to respect international law. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the President and his team are discussing “various options” to achieve the goal of acquiring Greenland, including “deploying U.S. military.” This geopolitical tension boosts gold safe-haven demand, with some funds also flowing into Bitcoin as a “digital gold” alternative safe-haven.

Kitco Metals senior analyst noted that current risk perception among precious metals traders is higher than that of stock and bond traders. Last weekend’s U.S. raid on Venezuela continued to drive safe-haven buying in gold and silver. HSBC pointed out that, driven by rising geopolitical risks and related factors, gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold surged 64.4% last year, its best annual performance since 1979.

Three Catalysts for Today’s Bitcoin Rebound

Geopolitical Spillover: Gold up $20, Bitcoin benefits from digital gold safe-haven demand

Tariff Ruling Expectations: Supreme Court may rule on Friday, policy uncertainty drives capital into safe havens

Pre-Non-Farm Data: Estimated 60,000 new jobs, rate cut expectations support a low-interest environment

Technical Rebound: Breakthrough from $85,000-$90,000 range, testing $94,000 resistance

Market Impact of Trump Tariff Ruling

The U.S. Supreme Court has designated Friday as “Opinion Release Day,” and Bloomberg reports that this will be the first opportunity to rule on President Trump’s global tariffs. Lower courts ruled last year that tariffs were illegal but allowed continued enforcement while awaiting the Supreme Court’s decision. A ruling against them would severely undermine Trump’s core economic policies and trigger a multi-billion dollar tax refund dispute.

If the Supreme Court rules unfavorably for Trump on tariffs, it will weaken his signature economic policies and mark his biggest legal setback since returning to the White House, also sparking complex tax refund disputes. Over 1,000 companies are already lining up to claim refunds on paid tariffs. This policy uncertainty drives capital into safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin, as an asset not controlled by any single government, gains additional demand in this environment.

Non-Farm Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Markets will focus on Friday’s U.S. December non-farm payroll report. Economists estimate an increase of 60,000 jobs in December, below the previous month’s 64,000, with the unemployment rate expected to slightly decline from 4.6% to 4.5%. Other labor market data also show signs of a slight slowdown, with initial jobless claims modestly rising last week, and November job openings declining more than expected. December private sector employment growth did not meet market forecasts.

The market has already priced in the expectation of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Since gold is a non-yielding asset, it generally performs better in a low-interest environment. Bitcoin also benefits from low rates, as rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street, said, “The market is looking for clearer evidence of where the economy is headed. The consensus remains that, with the Fed still expected to cut rates, the dollar may continue to weaken.” A weaker dollar usually benefits dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin.

Experts Question Sustainability of the Rebound

Although Bitcoin rebounded today, many analysts expect the narrow trading range to continue. Gerry O’Shea, Head of Global Market Insights at Hashdex, said, “There may be some catalysts in the coming weeks to support higher prices.” He pointed out that U.S. monetary policy could shift, or Congress could make progress on cryptocurrency legislation, “but for now, we are still in a range-bound market.”

Jim Feraioli, Head of Crypto Research at Charles Schwab, believes Bitcoin rose from a low of 12.6K USD in November 2022 to a high of 25K USD on October 12, 2025, an 8-fold increase over three years, “the market is still digesting this rally.” Since reaching a record high in October, on-chain trading activity has declined, and inflows into ETFs have become a major price driver. “Real institutional investors have not yet fully entered this space; once relevant legislation is enacted, it could become the next driver for sustained Bitcoin price growth.”

Overall, today’s Bitcoin rebound is driven by geopolitical safe-haven demand, tariff ruling expectations, and pre-non-farm data technical buying, but experts warn this may only be a rebound within a range, not a trend reversal.