XRP Today News: Despite ETF Outflows, Why Does the $3 Target Remain Resilient?

Entering 2026, XRP experienced a strong start but has recently come under pressure due to the first single-day net outflow of $40.8 million in the US spot ETF market. The price has been correcting for three consecutive days, testing the critical psychological support at $2.00. However, short-term volatility has not reversed institutional long-term optimism. On one hand, the steady progress of the Market Structure Act on Capitol Hill provides a potential decisive policy tailwind for the entire crypto industry; on the other hand, the actual demand for XRP in cross-border payments and other fields continues to grow. Analysts believe that if XRP can hold the $2.00 level, its medium-term (4-8 weeks) target remains at $3.00, with a long-term (8-12 weeks) outlook even reaching the previous high of $3.66.

ETF First Net Outflow: Trend Reversal or Healthy Correction?

On January 7, 2026, the US XRP spot ETF market recorded a noteworthy change: for the first time since the launch of the initial products last November, there was a single-day net outflow totaling $40.8 million. This data immediately caused ripples in the market, becoming the “last straw” that broke XRP’s continuous upward momentum, leading to a three-day correction. Among the products, the 21Shares ETF (ticker: TOXR) was the main source of outflows, with a total net outflow of $8.18 million since listing. In contrast, the first batch of ETFs from Canary (XRPC), Bitwise (XRP), Franklin (XRPZ), and Grayscale (GXRP) have maintained net inflows since their inception.

This subtle shift in capital coincides with several bearish news items. Reports indicate that WisdomTree has withdrawn its application for an XRP spot ETF (S-1 form), and major financial players like Morgan Stanley, when applying for Bitcoin and SOL spot ETFs, did not include XRP. These events, to some extent, have heightened market doubts. However, a deeper analysis suggests that the outflow may not be overly pessimistic. First, this occurred after XRP had already surged approximately 33% since the start of the year, reaching a high of $2.4151—profit-taking is normal in such a context. Second, data platform Santiment points out that when social media sentiment reaches extreme greed levels over “Bitcoin surpassing $100,000,” markets often experience short-term reversals. The current correction may simply be a cooling of greed and a buildup of strength for the next rally.

From a macro perspective, the continued net inflow of funds into the initial ETF products indicates that the core institutional demand remains intact. WisdomTree’s exit reflects the challenges faced by later entrants amid fierce competition among five existing products, rather than a negative view of XRP itself. This outflow appears more like a technical correction and emotional relief after a sharp rise, rather than a fundamental trend reversal.

Policy Winds Over Short-term Fluctuations: The Market Structure Act as the Main Focus

Compared to short-term market noise like ETF capital flows, the real driver of XRP’s medium- to long-term outlook is the policy legislative process from Washington, D.C. The Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees have officially announced that they will review and amend the milestone Market Structure Act on January 15. This development is widely seen as a crucial step toward clarifying crypto regulation.

The core goal of the bill is to define the regulatory jurisdiction over digital assets, clarifying which tokens are commodities (under the CFTC) and which are securities (under the SEC). For XRP, this is especially significant. Although a judge in the SEC lawsuit against Ripple has already ruled that XRP itself is not a security, a comprehensive and clear legal framework covering the entire industry would eliminate the cloud of regulatory uncertainty and pave the way for broader participation by traditional financial institutions. Historically, markets react strongly to such news: in July last year, when the bill passed the House, XRP surged 14.69% in a single day; after the committee review date was announced on December 31, XRP soared to its yearly high in early January.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett dismissed rumors that the bill lacks bipartisan support, noting that the Senate Agriculture Committee has been engaged in bipartisan negotiations for months. Previously, the House Agriculture Committee passed relevant parts of the bill overwhelmingly with a vote of 47-6. If the January 15 review proceeds smoothly and the bill ultimately passes the Senate, it would inject a powerful policy boost into XRP and the entire crypto market. This potential positive catalyst outweighs the significance of a single-day ETF capital flow, forming the foundation for the XRP medium- and long-term price targets.

Technical vs. Fundamental Tug-of-War: Key Levels That Will Decide Direction

On the daily chart, XRP is experiencing a tug-of-war between technical correction pressures and strong fundamental support. As of the close on January 8, XRP is at $2.1217, having declined for three days and broken below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key indicator for long-term trend traders. However, the price remains above the 50-day EMA (around $2.0729), indicating that the medium-term trend structure has not been broken.

For traders, several key price thresholds warrant close attention. Above, the 200-day EMA (~$2.3412) is the first significant resistance. A successful break above this level would confirm a bullish trend reversal and open the door toward the $2.50 resistance. Below, the $2.00 psychological level is also aligned with the recent upward trendline support, making it a sentiment indicator. If this support is decisively broken, further declines toward $1.75 or even $1.50 are possible, risking the invalidation of the bullish structure.

This technical indecision reflects the current market split: bears point to overbought indicators, ETF outflows, and overall consolidation; bulls remain confident due to the policy fundamentals, increasing utility in cross-border payments, and expectations of a Fed rate cut cycle starting in March 2025. The outcome of this tug-of-war will likely hinge on fundamental catalysts. Positive progress in the policy bill or a return to net capital inflows could quickly overcome technical resistance; conversely, policy setbacks or macroeconomic deterioration could test technical supports severely.

Key Data and Targets for XRP Bulls and Bears

• Recent Pressure:

  • Event: First single-day net outflow of $40.8 million in US XRP spot ETF.
  • Price Reaction: XRP declined for three days, with a maximum retracement of over 12% from the Jan 6 high of $2.4151.
  • Key Technical Level: Under pressure below the 200-day EMA (~$2.3412).

• Core Support Levels:

  • Policy Foundation: US Senate committees to review the Market Structure Act on January 15.
  • Key Price Defense: The $2.00 psychological level and the 50-day EMA (~$2.0729).
  • Institutional Activity: The first four major XRP ETFs (XRPC, XRP, XRPZ, GXRP) still record net inflows since listing.

• Bull and Bear Target Zones:

  • Bullish Targets:
    • Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.00.
    • Long-term (8-12 weeks): challenge the previous high of $3.66.
  • Bearish Targets:
    • If the $2.00 support fails: target $1.75 and $1.50.

Risks Not to Ignore: Factors That Could Kill the Bullish Narrative

Despite the optimistic outlook, rational investors must remain aware of potential risks. The following scenarios could overturn current bullish expectations:

First, macro-financial environment shifts. The market is currently pricing in a Fed rate cut starting in March 2025. If upcoming US economic data (employment, inflation) remains strong, delaying or weakening rate cut expectations, risk asset valuations globally could suffer, and cryptocurrencies may not be immune. A more covert risk involves Japan: if the Bank of Japan shifts to a hawkish stance, signaling multiple rate hikes, it could trigger large-scale yen carry trades unwinding, draining liquidity from global markets and impacting high-volatility assets like XRP.

Second, policy risks remain. While the prospects for the Market Structure Act are positive, Washington’s political process is unpredictable. Unexpected bipartisan resistance or key amendments could dampen market sentiment. Additionally, the ongoing legal dispute between the SEC and Ripple over enforcement and fines has not been fully resolved; any adverse development could be exploited by bears.

Finally, funding sustainability is crucial. If XRP ETF outflows are not just a one-day event but become a trend, it would signal weakening institutional demand, undermining a core bullish argument. Moreover, the overall crypto market’s volatility means that a significant Bitcoin correction could lead to larger declines in XRP.

Outlook: Navigating Volatility for Clarity, Key Focus in January

Looking ahead, XRP’s price action in the coming weeks will revolve around several highly certain time points and indicators, providing a clear observation framework.

In the short term (1-4 weeks), market focus will split between:

• Monitoring daily US XRP spot ETF capital flows—whether the January 7 outflow is isolated. A return of inflows would be a direct bullish signal.
• Watching January 15 for the Senate committee’s review. Any positive progress could ignite a new rally, targeting $2.50.

In the medium term (4-8 weeks), the narrative will shift toward macroeconomic developments and the bill’s final passage. The March Fed meeting will be pivotal; if rate cuts commence as expected, it would be a macro tailwind. The bill’s passage in the Senate will be the key event determining market sentiment. Smooth progress could make the $3.00 target very achievable.

In the long term (8-12 weeks and beyond), XRP’s price will depend on the expansion of its real-world utility ecosystem and whether the overall crypto bull cycle continues. If Ripple continues breakthroughs in CBDC and cross-border payment collaborations, combined with bullish market sentiment, challenging the $3.66 high and aiming for $5 could become realistic.

In summary, XRP is currently at a crossroads: short-term technical pressure and emotional digestion are evident, but medium- and long-term support comes from strong policy prospects and fundamental improvements. For investors, the outcome at the $2.00 level will be the first key indicator of short-term strength or weakness; meanwhile, the policy signals on January 15 could be the critical turning point for the medium-term trajectory. In this high-volatility crypto arena, discerning noise from the true signals of an era is more important than ever.