According to a recent Reuters survey of economists conducted April 17-21, the Federal Reserve is expected to wait at least six more months before cutting interest rates in 2024. The postponement reflects inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East war, which has lasted approximately two months and drastically increased energy prices.
Survey Findings on Rate Expectations
In the April 17-21 survey, 56 out of 103 economists predicted that the policy rate would remain stable between 3.50% and 3.75% until the end of September. This represents a significant shift from late March expectations, when nearly 70% of surveyed economists anticipated at least one rate cut by September.
Nearly one-third of economists surveyed now believe there will be no rate cuts in 2024 at all—a figure that has almost doubled compared to the previous survey.
Inflation and Consumer Impact
Rising fuel costs have driven consumer confidence to record lows, erasing earlier market expectations of an early interest rate cut. Even the most dovish members of the Fed are now arguing that inflation remains “disturbingly high,” weakening the likelihood of rapid monetary policy easing.
Year-End Rate Cut Outlook
Despite near-term delays, most economists surveyed still expect at least one interest rate cut by the end of 2024. The median forecast is for a single rate cut, consistent with the Fed’s “dot plot” projections released last month.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Money Markets Fully Price in Two ECB Rate Hikes by December, 50% Probability of Third Increase
Gate News message, April 23 — Money markets have fully priced in expectations of two European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes by December, with a 50% probability of a third increase occurring.
GateNews4h ago
Market Increases Bets on BoE Rate Hikes, Pricing in 62 Basis Points for 2026
Gate News message, April 23 — Market participants have increased bets on Bank of England rate hikes, with traders now pricing in 62 basis points of increases for the remainder of 2026.
GateNews5h ago
Global Bond Markets Reprice on Geopolitical Tensions and Inflation Resurgence in Q1 2026
Gate News message, April 23 — Global bond markets entered 2026 expecting monetary easing, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and energy supply disruptions reversed that narrative during Q1, forcing investors to reassess interest rate outlooks. According to Eurex data, March marked a
GateNews5h ago
Philippine Central Bank Raises Policy Rate to 4.5% as Middle East Crisis Pushes Inflation to 4.1%
Gate News message, April 23 — The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), the Philippines' central bank, raised its policy rate to 4.5% on April 23, marking the first rate hike in two years amid escalating Middle East tensions that have driven up domestic fuel and food prices.
Inflation in the Philippin
GateNews6h ago
Chinese Yuan Expected to Surpass Japanese Yen in FX Options Trading, LCH Predicts
Gate News message, April 23 — According to Andrew Batchelor, head of LCH ForexClear, the Chinese yuan is expected to surpass the Japanese yen as the second most actively traded currency against the U.S. dollar in foreign exchange options markets.
Batchelor stated that when the Bank for
GateNews7h ago
TradFi Rise Alert: USDIDR (US Dollar vs Indonesian Rupiah) Rises Over 0.5%
Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDIDR (US Dollar vs Indonesian Rupiah) has surged by 0.5% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market
GateNews10h ago
