# 通胀与经济增长

#通胀与经济增长 Seeing the Fed's recent moves, I have to be honest. The 25 basis point rate cut is in line with expectations, but the dot plot shows only one rate cut next year—that's the real game-changer. Going from a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year to possibly just 25 basis points next year—feel how quickly this shift is happening.
The key point is what Powell said: "Further rate cuts will only occur if there is a significant deterioration in the labor market." In other words, the easing cycle is nearing its end. Those in the market still hoping for continuous easing should wake up.
In

#通胀与经济增长 Recently, I've been seeing discussions about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, and I have some thoughts I'd like to share with everyone.
The direction of interest rates next year seems more complicated than we imagined. There are basically three ways to achieve a rate cut: wait for inflation to continue to decline, see deterioration in the labor market, or changes within the Federal Reserve's internal structure. But have you ever thought about what these variables mean for us ordinary investors?
The increasing uncertainty in economic policy is precisely the moment when we

#通胀与经济增长 Recently saw that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates. I initially thought this was good news, but the more I look, the more confused I get...🤔
I just realized that weak employment data and rising unemployment rates—aren't these bad signs? Why do they become reasons to cut rates? I later understood that weak employment means less wage pressure, which allows the central bank to cut rates to stimulate the economy. But the problem is, it’s not that simple—
After reading a report, I found out that consumer credit card debt has already exceeded $1.2 trillion, with an average int

#通胀与经济增长 The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates again, but internal disagreements among officials are causing a lot of noise. This signal really needs to be interpreted thoroughly. Three rate cuts sound great, but Nick Timiraos's article hits the core issue—inflation hasn't truly softened yet, and employment is cooling down, which is the so-called precursor to stagflation.
Having been in the crypto space for many years, the biggest fear is this kind of uncertain environment. When economic data is ambiguous, it's precisely when the big players love to harvest gains. They will use the Fed's

#通胀与经济增长 Powell's recent statements are indeed worth pondering—inflation risks are tilted to the upside, and there is no risk-free policy path, which means market uncertainty is increasing.
From a trading perspective, such macro turning points most test the adaptability of traders. I've been observing how several experts are responding, and interestingly, their styles vary greatly: the aggressive traders are starting to increase positions in volatile assets, betting on the repeated opportunities brought by policy swings; the cautious traders are reducing leverage and increasing hedging positi

#通胀与经济增长 I just saw Powell's latest remarks and was a bit shaken 😅
Is inflation risk tilted upward? Are there no risk-free policy paths? These words sound complicated, but I think the translation is: prices are still acting up, and the central bank's every decision is a dilemma. On one hand, they need to control inflation; on the other, they have to consider economic growth. It feels like walking a tightrope.
The most heartbreaking part is that the labor market is cooling down, but inflation remains high. Doesn't that mean economic growth is slowing, yet prices aren't dropping much? Suddenly

#通胀与经济增长 Looking at this FOMC decision, the scene that flashes in my mind is still the one from 2015. Back then, it was also a tug-of-war — hawkish voices were deafening, but at the critical voting moment, the tough tone softened. Sometimes, history really does play out like a recurring drama.
This time, the dovish and moderate outcome on the surface seems like a victory for rate cuts, but the details hide more complex elements. Anna Wong predicts a 100 basis point rate cut next year, which is quite interesting in the current environment — it assumes wage growth remains weak and inflation won

#通胀与经济增长 When I saw Timiraos' article, the scene that flashed through my mind was the night before the 2015 rate hike cycle. Back then, it was the same—divided voices within the Federal Reserve, external pressures mounting, and the market waiting for a clear signal.
The three paths to rate cuts are discussed frankly, but they also reveal the harsh realities. Waiting for inflation to decline? That takes time, and political pressures will never give economists enough patience. Worsening labor market? That’s a desperate measure—no policymaker truly hopes to see unemployment soar just to cut rate

#通胀与经济增长 The signals just released by the Federal Reserve should be noted, the last interest rate cut of 25 basis points this year is already set, but the expectations for rate cuts next year have been significantly reduced. The dot plot indicates that there may only be one cut in 2026, which means— the cycle of tightening liquidity will continue.
For us yield farmers, this is critical information. Inflation pressures are still present, and the Fed's hawkish stance is very clear, with the room for future easing severely limited. This means the financing environment for new projects will becom

#通胀与经济增长 The Federal Reserve's three rate cuts have failed to quell internal disputes, and the risk of stagflation has re-emerged—this signal is worth deep reflection.
The dilemma of the traditional financial system is right in front of us: stubborn inflation, cooling employment, and policymakers caught in a dilemma. The nightmare of stagflation in the 1970s began this way, with stop-and-go policies ultimately entrenching high inflation. Today, we see a similar balancing act.
This is precisely the moment when the Web3 philosophy shines. The emergence of DeFi breaks the monopoly pricing power